FX.co ★ Forecast for USD/JPY on July 2, 2024

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD/JPY performed a remarkable feat, surpassing the upper boundary of the global ascending channel (161.00). This was likely an automatic response since the Bank of Japan has not yet intervened in the foreign exchange market. Trading volume was average. We see an open target at 163.85, but now there are expectations that Japanese authorities could soon intervene.

Typically, the BOJ conducts interventions in a calm market, so an auspicious moment would be either today or the beginning of next week. In addition, we are concerned about the behavior of the Marlin oscillator – it barely reacts to the pair's rise.

On the 4-hour chart, the price mirrors the structure of the intraday rise – prolonged and excessively strong, also typical of an unexpected decline. Here, a triple divergence with the Marlin oscillator has already formed. We await further developments.