FX.co ★ USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for beginner traders on June 28th (US session)

Analysis of trades and trading tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the price at 160.86 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar and resulting in a drop in the pair by more than 30 pips. However, interesting data related to US inflation may limit further decline in the pair. The core personal consumption expenditure index, changes in consumer spending levels, and income levels will guide the market in the second half of the day. Therefore, in case of increasing indicators, one can also expect the strengthening of the US dollar. Data on the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan and inflation expectations from the same institution will also be very significant. Finally, take advantage of the speeches of FOMC members Thomas Barkin and Michelle Bowman. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Signal to Buy

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 160.76 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 161.21 (thicker green line). At around 161.21, I will exit the buys and open sales in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Expectations for the pair's rise today can continue in the context of the ascending trend, but only after very strong US data and news of inflation growth. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price at 160.31 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 160.76 and 161.21.

Signal to Sell

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after it updates to the level of 160.31 (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 160.00, where I will exit the sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful attempt to reach the daily high and weak US statistics. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case the price at 160.76 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downwards. Expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 160.31 and 160.00.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line - Entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line - Target price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line - Entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line - Target price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, following overbought and oversold zones is important.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must carefully decide about market entry. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and trading with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it's essential to have a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.