FX.co ★ Forecast for USD/JPY on June 28, 2024

USD/JPY

This morning, the price reached a key resistance level, from which we have been waiting for a bearish reversal for more than a week. The price reached the upper boundary of the global price channel (in blue) on the weekly chart, which shows that a double divergence is ready on the weekly chart.

Market participants are waiting for the Bank of Japan to intervene, the risk of which has increased after Japan just published its CPI report for May. The Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy inflation rate increased from 1.2% to 1.4% in annual terms. If the BOJ conducts a foreign exchange intervention, the price could fall by 10 figures to the level of 150.90 within two weeks – to the MACD line on a weekly timeframe.

On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator is sideways, indicating weakness in the upward trend.

On the 4-hour chart, the price and the Marlin oscillator have formed a double divergence.

It appears that the price intends to return below the 160.40 level. If there is no currency intervention, the price will have to deal with an obstacle at the point of contact with the MACD line (159.70).