FX.co ★ Forecast for GBP/USD on June 21, 2024

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the Bank of England kept the rate unchanged, and the vote was split 7-2 (same as in May). As market participants expected, there was a hint of a rate cut in August. We were expecting a more dovish outcome, with at least a 6-3 vote in favor of maintaining the rate, so the price has not reached the MACD line (1.2633).

Today in the UK, economists' forecasts indicate good news: retail sales for May are expected to increase by 1.6%, and net borrowing of the public sector for the same period is seen to decrease from £19.6 billion to £14.6 billion. At its earliest, on Monday, the pound may be able to consolidate below the MACD line (1.26330, after that it will be much easier to develop a downward movement.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance and MACD indicator lines, but at the same time, it has formed a convergence with the Marlin oscillator. Today, the pound will likely spend the day in consolidation in order to make its way to the target level of 1.2596. As a result, the price may continue to fall to the level of 1.2517.