FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on June 13, 2024

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the US dollar fell by 0.87%, with the key event being the release of the US CPI for May. The core index decreased from 3.6% y/y to 3.4% y/y, while the CPI weakened from 3.4% y/y to 3.3% y/y. Investors were so enthusiastic about the idea of a swift rate cut by the Federal Reserve, specifically two rate cuts by year-end, that they overlooked the FOMC's own forecast for only one rate cut (as opposed to three in the March forecast).

As a result, the euro significantly closed the Monday gap, but it's not in a rush to fall just yet. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart showed an intention to reverse as it approached the boundary of the uptrend territory. Clearly, a reversal signal will not appear until the price consolidates below 1.0788, potentially breaking through the support of the MACD line. If investors' convictions about a substantial easing of the Fed's monetary policy prove strong, the price could rise to 1.0905 if it surpasses yesterday's high at 1.0853. However, we consider yesterday's rise as speculative and expect the price to return below 1.0788.

On the 4-hour chart, the price stopped rising due to the balance indicator line, indicating a corrective nature of the uptrend. As a result, the price returned below the MACD line. We believe that the price will linger around the current levels so the market can cool off before it potentially starts a decline.