FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on June 11, 2024

EUR/USD

On the weekly chart, the euro has opened a gap below the support of the Kijun-sen line, setting a target at 1.0369, which coincides with the August 2022 peak and the embedded line of the descending price channel. The Marlin oscillator is close to entering negative territory, but first, we hope to see the gap closed below the Kijun-sen line.

If European market participants are alarmed by the victory of right-wing forces in the European Parliament elections, it simplifies the carry trade operation for the U.S. Treasury involving foreign investors, which in turn increases the demand for dollars. Today, there is an auction for 10-year bonds worth $39 billion and one-year bills worth $46 billion.

On the daily chart, the price has consolidated below the Kijun-sen line and the 1.0788 level, while the Marlin oscillator also settled below the neutral zero line. However, unless the gap is closed, it is unlikely for the price to fall in the medium-term. The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision tomorrow evening, and if the gap is not closed by then, high volatility is expected at the time of the release. Ultimately, we anticipate the price to reach the 1.0656 level.

On the 4-hour chart, the corrective growth continues as usual, with the Marlin oscillator rising and pulling the price above the 1.0788 level. The market has the opportunity to rise and close the gap before the Fed meeting.