FX.co ★ Analysis of GBP/USD pair on June 4, 2024

For the GBP/USD pair, the wave analysis remains quite complicated. A successful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level in April indicated that the market was ready to build a downward wave of 3 or C. If this wave continues its construction, the wave pattern will become much simpler, and the threat of complications in the wave analysis will disappear. However, in recent weeks, the pair has remained the same, making us doubt the market's readiness for sales again.

In the current situation, my readers can still count on building wave 3 or c, the targets below the low of wave 1 or a, the mark of 1.2035. Consequently, the British dollar should decrease by at least 600-700 more base points from current levels. With such a decrease, wave 3 or c will be relatively small, so I expect a much larger drop in quotes. It may take a lot of time to build the entire wave 3 or c. Wave 2 or b has been under construction for 5 months, and this is only a corrective wave. Building a pulse wave can take even longer. The last corrective wave was very long but did not cease to be corrective. Therefore, I still expect the dollar to strengthen.

Demand for the pound remains consistently high.

The exchange rate of the GBP/USD pair decreased slightly on Tuesday, but this decline is so weak, and we have seen so many such small declines in recent weeks that it does not give any reason to expect the completion of the construction of an upward wave. Today, the JOLTS report was actively working against the US currency, according to which the number of open vacancies in the United States in April amounted to only 8.059 million. The market expected at least 8.34 million. This report suggests that the labor market continues to slow down. There are more and more unemployed people, fewer vacancies, and fewer jobs being created from month to month.

The problem is not even in the JOLTS report itself. Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment, and ADP reports may also show weaker values than market expectations. If this is true, then the demand for the US currency will continue to decline.

The current wave layout retains its integrity but does so with a creak. If the price increase continues, it will mean not just a reversal of the trend from "bearish" to "bullish". This will mean that the wave analysis will need clarification. The waves are almost identical in size, constantly alternating in random order. The dollar's hope is still linked to economic statistics from the United States this week, but the first two reports from a whole block of statistics have already turned out to be negative.

General conclusions.

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I am still considering selling the pair with targets located below 1.2039, as wave 3 or c has not yet been canceled. Since the pair is trying to form a reversal near the 1.2822 mark and near the peak of the expected wave 2 or b, the sale of the pair can be considered with the first targets located near the 1.2315 mark. But very carefully, as the market is extremely reluctant to increase demand for the US currency.

At the higher wave scale, the wave pattern is even more eloquent. The downward correction section of the trend continues to build, and its second wave has acquired an extended appearance – by 76.4% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break through this mark could lead to the beginning of building 3 or c, but a corrective wave is currently being built.

The basic principles of my analysis:

1) Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play out; they often bring changes.

2) If you are unsure what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.

3) The direction of movement is not absolute and can never be. Do not forget about Stop-Loss protection orders.

4) Wave analysis can be combined with other analysis and trading strategies.