FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on May 31, 2024

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro almost reached the crucial support of the MACD line and the descending price channel line, but the U.S. report stopped the single currency. The U.S. first quarter GDP was revised down from 1.6% to 1.3% in the "second estimate". The US stock index S&P 500 lost 0.60%, while European indexes closed the day higher (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.42%).

Considering yesterday's rise through the prism of the European Central Bank's monetary policy, investors returned to last week's range in anticipation of the ECB meeting. The Marlin oscillator has not yet left the positive territory, so the euro may fluctuate before the ECB announces the expected rate cut. The support level will be 1.0796. The upper limit of growth is the boundary of the price channel at 1.0875.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has returned to positive territory, indicating that it has the potential to rise to the MACD line (1.0858). If the price consolidates above this indicator line, this will likely be a false signal. We believe that for now the price will not be able to overcome the upper boundary of the price channel at the level of 1.0875.

Today, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) indices for April will be published. Forecasts for core PCE (2.8% y/y) and overall PCE (2.7% y/y) suggest that the figures will remain unchanged, which may support a sideways trend.