FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD pair on May 23, 2024

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the markets showed reduced risk appetite – the S&P 500 stock index fell by 0.27%, and the dollar index rose by 0.29%. Now, the euro has three short-term development options:

1. The growth continues to the target level of 1.0905, forming a divergence marked by a dashed line on the oscillator chart.
2. Growth will be limited to the upper boundary of the new descending price channel at the 1.0878 mark solely to confirm its validity and then reverse downward from there.
3. Decline to the nearest inner line of the new channel at the 1.0774 mark to confirm the validity and accuracy of this line and the entire channel.

Additionally, it should be noted that the MACD line is approaching the 1.0774 mark. Therefore, the price must consolidate below this level for the euro to reverse into a downtrend. Until then, the price can behave in various ways – forming a flag, pennant, double top, etc. Nevertheless, there is a 55% probability that the correction peaked on May 16.

On the four-hour scale, the price has settled below the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is deepening into the territory of a downtrend. The MACD line itself is starting to turn downward. The trend is descending, confirming the likelihood of an already occurred reversal. However, this situation does not prevent the price from complicating the sideways movement