FX.co ★ USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 16th (US session)

Trade analysis and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The price test at 154.17 occurred when the MACD started moving up from the zero mark, confirming the scenario for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 80 points, reaching the target level of 155.01. It is evident that traders took advantage of attractive prices after yesterday's decline and quickly bought back some of the declines. Most likely, demand for the dollar will remain high - especially in the event of strong US data. We have important data on the weekly number of initial jobless claims, the number of new building permits, and the volume of construction permits issued. A strong fundamental background will lead to further growth in USD/JPY, aiming to cover yesterday's decline from annual highs. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 155.15 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 155.80 (thicker green line). At 155.80, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Expecting the pair to rise today in continuation of the trend after good US data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its growth from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.62 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market turn upwards. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 155.15 and 155.80.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after updating the level of 154.62 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 153.84, where I will exit sales and open purchases immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of weak US data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.15 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market turn downwards. Expect a decline towards the opposite level of 154.62 and 153.84.

Chart Information:

Thin green line - entry price for buying the trading instrument.

Thick green line - presumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price for selling the trading instrument.

Thick red line - presumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the forex market should be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your deposit without placing stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.