FX.co ★ EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 16th (US session)

Trade analysis and tips for trading the European currency

The initial test of the price at 1.0872 occurred when the MACD indicator had descended significantly from the zero mark, limiting the pair's further downward potential. For this reason, especially against yesterday's trend, I refrained from selling the euro. Shortly after, another test at 1.0872 occurred as the MACD recovered from oversold territory, allowing Scenario #2 to materialize for buying. However, significant growth did not materialize, and pressure on the pair resumed. The absence of Eurozone statistics had a negative impact on market sentiment.

Ahead, we have important data on weekly initial jobless claims. If the numbers align with economists' forecasts, traders will likely focus on construction data, specifically the number and volume of new building permits issued. Also, keep an eye on changes in US industrial production. A strong fundamental background will lead to further declines in the euro and strengthening of the dollar. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0883 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.0920. At 1.0920, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Euro growth can be expected today, but only after weak US data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its ascent.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0858 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market turn upwards. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.0883 and 1.0920.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching 1.0858 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0825, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return without buyer activity near the daily high and news of a strong labor market. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0883 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market turn downwards. Expect a decline towards the opposite level of 1.0858 and 1.0825.

Chart Information:

Thin green line - entry price for buying the trading instrument.

Thick green line - presumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price for selling the trading instrument.

Thick red line - presumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the forex market should be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to avoid losingYou your deposit without placing stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.