FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on May 3, 2024

The euro managed to gain some more during the US trading session. This time, this was due to revised expectations regarding today's US Department of Labor data, which is about the number of new non-farm payrolls. Although the main forecast remains the same at 243,000, investors are now expecting only 238,000 to be created. The difference seems small, but the point is that, an average of around 250,000 jobs should be created per month in order to simply maintain labor market stability. Slowing job creation in an overheated labor market could signal the start of irreversible processes leading to serious problems. There is almost no doubt that the US labor market is overheated, primarily due to the incredibly low unemployment rate, which has remained near record lows for a long time. There are concerns that at some point, the situation will spiral out of control, leading to mass layoffs and similar issues in the labor market. Any data that suggests negative trends is perceived through this lens. Therefore, once expectations are confirmed, the euro may rise a bit further.

At the end of the trading week, the EUR/USD pair exhibits a characteristic range along the 1.0700 level, leading to a decrease in the volume of long positions. However, it is worth noting that for the second consecutive week, the quote has been going through a correction from the local low of the downward cycle.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, which points to the growth in the volume of long positions.

On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the bullish sentiment.

Outlook

In order to increase buying volumes, the price must sette above the 1.0750 level. Otherwise, the price may fluctuate along the 1.0700 level.

The complex indicator analysis points to an uptrend in the short-term and intraday periods.