FX.co ★ Analysis of GBP/USD pair on May 2nd. The final chord for the dollar

The wave analysis for the GBP/USD pair remains quite complex. A successful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 50.0% indicated the market's readiness to build a downward wave 3 or c. If this wave indeed continues its construction, then the wave pattern will become much simpler, and the threat of complicating the wave analysis will disappear.

As I have already noted, the wave pattern should be simple and understandable to work with. There needs to be more simplicity and understanding in recent months. For a long time, the pair was sideways, and only now is there a possibility of building an impulsive downward wave.

In the current situation, my readers can expect the construction of wave 3 or c, the targets of which are located below the low of wave 1 or a. Therefore, the pound should decline by at least another 400-500 basis points from the current levels. With such a decline, wave 3 or c will be relatively small, and I expect a much greater decrease in quotes. The news background supports the American currency, and after breaking the 1.2469 mark (50.0% Fibonacci), the psychological blockade has been removed from sellers.

Sellers cannot take the 50.0% Fibonacci mark.

The GBP/USD pair rate remained practically unchanged throughout Thursday. If demand for the European currency decreases slightly, then for the British pound it does not. The 50.0% Fibonacci mark remains an insurmountable barrier for the pound, above which the pair has been for several days in a row. Today, there was no news background in the UK, and in the US, it was very weak. Therefore, significant changes in the exchange rate are not expected today. However, tomorrow, the news picture will be completely different: the unemployment report, the Nonfarm Payrolls report, and the ISM Business Activity Index for the services sector. These three reports can either help the market make a successful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci mark or leave the pair above it. In the second case, the continuation of the construction of wave 3 or c will be postponed indefinitely.

Undoubtedly, I would like the pair to move towards a decline as quickly as possible because any delay is a time when working with the pair makes no sense. If the forecast predicts a decline but there is no decline, then buying makes no sense (since the forecast is the opposite), and selling makes no sense because the exchange rate is not decreasing. However, American reports will still be stronger than market expectations tomorrow. If not tomorrow, then next week, the decline may resume. Despite the fact that sellers are currently weak, buyers also cannot switch to building an upward wave that would break the entire current wave analysis. Therefore, we need to continue waiting for a breakthrough of the 50.0% Fibonacci level.

General conclusions.

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I am still considering selling the pair with targets located below the 1.2039 mark, as wave 3 or c has begun its construction. A successful attempt to break through the 1.2472 mark, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates the long-awaited readiness of the market to build a downward wave.

On a larger wave scale, the wave pattern is even more eloquent. The downward correctional section of the trend continues its construction, and its second wave has taken on an elongated form - to 76.4% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break this mark could have led to the beginning of the construction of wave 3 or c.

The main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play and often bring changes.
2. If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.
3. There is never one hundred percent certainty about the direction of movement. Remember about Stop Loss protective orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.