FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 3, 2024

The market's main concern is who will be the first to start lowering interest rates? And with just a quick glance at the euro's chart, it's clear that it should be the European Central Bank. At least that's what most market participants assumed. However, yesterday seemed to mark the beginning of a corrective rebound, which, in addition to the dollar's overbought condition, was partly triggered by a reevaluation of inflation forecasts in the eurozone. While not long ago, everyone expected a further slowdown in the pace of consumer price growth, now it is forecasted that it will remain unchanged. Once this is confirmed, the single currency will receive a boost. If inflation remains at the same level, the ECB may delay its rate cut cycle.

EUR/USD almost reached the support level of 1.0700, and the volume of short positions decreased around this mark. As a result, there was a technical pullback. This is a logical move as the euro is clearly oversold.

On the 30M, 1H and 4H charts, the RSI technical indicator has left the oversold zone, corresponding to the retracement stage.

On the 4-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards. There is no clear sign of entanglement between the lines.

Outlook

If the pair extends the corrective phase, the price could return to the level of 1.0800. However, this will not lead to a significant change in trading interests. The bearish scenario will come into play if the price bounces off the level of 1.0800 or returns below 1.0750.

In terms of complex indicator analysis, indicators point to a retracement in the short term and intraday periods.