FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on March 22, 2024

The main outcome of the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting was that the Federal Reserve would be the first key central bank to start lowering its interest rates. This was the reason why the dollar sharply fell. However, it took less than a day for sentiments and expectations to change drastically. The results of yesterday's Bank of England meeting reminded us that the British central bank was the first central bank to significantly raise interest rates. A couple of years ago, there were discussions about it being the first to start lowering rates as well. Then it was somewhat forgotten, but yesterday we were reminded of this fact once again. Therefore, the disparity in interest rates will continue to work in favor of the dollar. This returned the pair to its values before the Fed meeting. Moreover, the reassessment of expectations regarding interest rates could substantially support the dollar.

The EUR/USD, driven by a positive correlation with the British pound, headed downwards. As a result, the price moved by more than 100 pips, and the pair updated the local low of the corrective cycle.

On the 30M and 1H charts, we observed signals of the euro's oversold conditions.

On the 4-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, which corresponds to the direction of the corrective cycle.

Outlook

Considering the scale of price changes in the market, there are signs of the euro being oversold, which allows for the possibility of a technical retracement. However, in case it follows the current momentum, speculators may ignore the oversold conditions, and the pair could fall towards the 1.0800 level.

Complex indicator analysis points to a downward cycle in the short-term and intraday timeframes.