FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on March 13, 2024

EUR/USD

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February came out mixed yesterday. The core CPI decreased from 3.9% YoY to 3.8% YoY, while the CPI increased from 3.1% YoY to 3.2% YoY. The stock market, without seeing any obstacles, rose by 1.12% (S&P 500), and the US Dollar Index edged up by 0.08%. However, if related markets are rising, counter-dollar currencies are likely to follow suit until the next Federal Reserve meeting on March 20th. This meeting is crucial, as it will discuss the timing of the first rate cut. The market's expectation aligns with the first rate cut in June (62.6%).

The pair reached the day's low at the support level of 1.0905. The price did not try to test the MACD line and turned upward along an easier path. Now, it may gradually rise to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, surpass it, and enter the target range of 1.1001/10.

On the 4-hour chart, the price did not reach the MACD line, turned away from the balance line, and all this points to speculators' interest in buying. The Marlin oscillator entered the bearish territory but this morning it is trying to leave it, suggesting that the recent movement was a false signal, strengthening the upward movement. We are waiting for the price at the Fibonacci 61.8% level (1.0971).