FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on March 8, 2024

EUR/USD

The European Central Bank meeting has taken place, revealing a somewhat contradictory tone. The event mentioned a downward revision of economic forecasts, but ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech was quite firm, as she opened the door slightly to rate cuts. The European Commission has downgraded its forecast for eurozone economic growth in 2023 to 0.6% from the previously expected 0.8%

Yesterday brought positive news for risk buyers, as the U.S. House of Representatives passed a $460 billion package of spending bills to fund about half the federal government through the fall.

As a result, the S&P 500 rose by 1.03%, gold by 0.50%, and oil by a modest 0.10%. The euro surged by 50 pips.

Today, the U.S. will release its employment data for February. The forecast for new non-farm jobs stands at 198,000, which, after January's 353,000, appears quite strong. Meanwhile, a 0.2% monthly wage growth is expected. The euro has another reason to rise, and from a technical perspective, the pair has not reached the target levels – the first target is 1.0971, the 61.8% corrective level on the daily chart, and the target range of 1.1001/10 – the peaks of November-December.

Growth is observed on the 4-hour chart – the price is above the indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is rising in the positive territory.

There's still a possibility that the stock market could crash, and this could pull down the euro; new record highs for the S&P 500 will probably prepare a reversal pattern somewhat later.