FX.co ★ Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on February 16

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD

Although the test of 1.0755 occurred during the sharp rise of the MACD line from zero, buying pressure persisted, as market players focused more on the retail sales data for the US. This provoked a price increase of over 30 pips.

Reports on the trade balance in the Eurozone and statements from ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane did not influence the direction of euro. However, weak statistics on the decline in US retail sales revived concerns about an earlier interest rate cut, weakening the position of dollar.

Most likely, euro will continue to rise after the release of positive statistics on Germany's wholesale price index and Italy's consumer price index. However, greater attention will be given to the speech of ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel because even if she does not say anything new, it will have a positive effect on euro, allowing it to continue the correction.

For long positions:

Buy when euro hits 1.0780 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0839. Growth will occur only amid strong eurozone statistics.

When buying, make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0741, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0780 and 1.0839.

For short positions:

Sell when euro reaches 1.0741 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0685. Pressure will increase in the case of very weak economic data and unsuccessful consolidation at the daily high.

When selling, make sure that the MACD line lies under zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0780, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0714 and 1.0685.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD

Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD

Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.