FX.co ★ Hot forecast for GBP/USD on February 1, 2024

The dollar was actively losing ground before the Federal Open Market Committee announced the results of its meeting, which showed that traders were overly confident that the Federal Reserve would announce the start of its monetary easing cycle. However, as seen in the charts, the dollar returned to its previous positions during Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. Therefore, the situation remained unchanged. Powell answered specific questions about two things: firstly, there will be no further interest rate hikes, although everyone was already aware of this. Secondly, we should not expect the first rate cut in the spring. However, this contradicts expectations. Overall, his statements were mostly contradictory. On the one hand, Powell said that interest rates have peaked, and on the other hand, inflation is at an extremely high level. Upon closer inspection, his remarks do not particularly agree with each other. As usual, Powell was rather evasive, and it is difficult to draw far-reaching conclusions from them. Perhaps this is a good thing, as the market has not left its fragile state.

Today, the preliminary data on inflation in the eurozone is in the spotlight. But do not forget about the Bank of England meeting. This event plays a much more significant role for the pound. It is clear that the refinancing rate will remain unchanged. The distribution of votes and subsequent comments are important. Most likely, the British central bank will provide a clearer signal about the imminent start of easing its monetary policy, which may exert pressure on the pound. However, it is better to wait for the actual results and make decisions based on them.

Speculative activity on the GBP/USD pair has not led to any crucial changes. The quote, as before, moves within the range of the sideways channel at 1.2600/1.2800, focusing on the middle level of 1.2700.

The RSI technical instrument is hovering at around the average level of 50 on the 4-hour chart. It means a flat market.

On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are intersecting each other, confirming the current sideways market.

Outlook

The price movement in the lower area of the channel increases the bears' chances of moving the pound towards the boundary at 1.2600. This will only indicate another cycle of movement within the channel. As for significant changes, we are considering the strategy of breaking through one or the other boundary. This will indicate the subsequent movement of the quote beyond the channel.

The complex indicator analysis suggests a bearish sentiment in the short-term and intraday periods.