FX.co ★ Analysis and trading tips for USD/JPY on February 1

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading USD/JPY

The test of 147.70, coinciding with the fall of the MACD line from zero, provoked a sell signal that led to a price decrease of over 100 pips.

Very poor US labor market statistics from the ADP put pressure on the pair ahead of the release of the Fed's decision on interest rates. Following the meeting, the committee kept interest rates unchanged, stating that it will not be lowered soon, let alone in March of this year. This led to dollar demand surging, but breaking the downward trend has not been successful so far.

Japan's Manufacturing PMI coincided with the forecasts, indicating further contraction in activity. However, this did not harm the market, so the downward correction of the pair will likely continue. Several important data on the US will be released today, but for now, the focus will be on updating yesterday's lows.

For long positions:

Buy when the price hits 147.09 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 147.84. Growth will occur after very good data from the US.

When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Also consider buying USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 146.50, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 147.09 and 147.84.

For short positions:

Sell when the price reaches 146.50 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 145.84. Pressure will return in continuation of yesterday's trend. It will occur amid a failed attempt to break beyond the daily high.

When selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Also consider selling USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 147.09, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 146.50 and 145.84.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy USD/JPY

Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell USD/JPY

Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.