FX.co ★ Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on January 18

Current conditions point to a thin market. Investors who closed their positions at the end of last year have not yet opened new ones, and a few days of modest strengthening in dollar will likely lead to the currency being overbought. This can be seen from the market's illogical reaction to US macroeconomic statistics.

Dollar lost its position despite extremely good data. According to the report, retail sales grew from 4.0% to 5.6% instead of falling to 4.0%. Industrial production also rose to 1.0% instead of dropping to -0.6%. Looking at this, it will be difficult to say in which direction the market will go today. Jobless claims data from the US will not affect sentiment much, especially since forecasts show minor changes. The total number of claims will likely increase by 4,000.

The decline in EUR/USD halted around the level of 1.0850. This resulted in a surge of long positions, which could lead to a return to the lower boundary of the previously passed flat ( 1.0900/1.1000). In this situation, the level of 1.0900 will act as resistance, allowing a price rebound and an increase in the volume of short positions. However, if the price stabilizes above the level of 1.0900 during the day, the pair will remain within 1.0900/1.1000.

Despite the recent activity of dollar positions, GBP/USD continued to move within the channel of 1.2600/1.2800. This led to a surge in long positions, which could provoke a return to the average level of the flat at 1.2700.