FX.co ★ Oil storm and political intrigue: What's happening to US markets?

Markets react to presidential debate: stocks fall, dollar holds

US stock futures fell, the dollar held its ground and bond prices jumped after a tense US presidential debate in which Vice President Kamala Harris put Republican nominee Donald Trump on the defensive.

Fiery debate puts investors on edge

The presidential contenders focused on hot-button issues such as abortion, the economy, immigration and Trump's legal woes in the first debate. That has raised concerns among investors, especially ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data that could shape Federal Reserve policy next week.

Bond yields fall on rate cut expectations

Bond yields, which move in the opposite direction to their prices, fell after Harris's strong speech, fueling expectations for interest rate cuts while investors also anticipate higher spending if Trump wins. Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 3.6068%, their lowest since June 2023. Meanwhile, 10-year German bond yields, the euro zone's benchmark, fell 2.5 basis points to 2.12%, a new one-month low.

Political battle intensifies after Biden exit

Harris's late entry into the presidential race following Joe Biden's resignation in July has intensified the political battle. Her confident debate only added to market jitters that have become more pronounced in anticipation of Trump's possible return to the White House.

Investors weigh the implications of a potential victory

S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% as the market speculates that a Harris presidency is unlikely to bring major spending or tax cuts.

Asian shares fall, Europe stays afloat

The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan fell 0.3%, reflecting broader trends in Asian markets.

European markets gain on US hurricane

European stock markets were more upbeat, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index up 0.4%. The gains were helped by gains in oil and gas stocks, driven by concerns that Hurricane Francine could impact US oil production.

Rates Tilt to Harris, But Fiscal Policy Remains Cloudy

The presidential debates provided little clarity on fiscal policy, but financial markets showed a bias in favor of Kamala Harris. Pop star Taylor Swift has thrown her weight behind her campaign, saying she will back Harris in the Nov. 5 election.

Dollar Weakens, Yen Strengthens

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the dollar against six other major currencies, was down 0.256 percent at 101.38. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen rose more than 1 percent to 140.71 per dollar, its highest since late December. The gains came after Bank of Japan Governor Junko Nakagawa reiterated that the bank will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation meet its forecasts.

US Crypto Assets Slip

US crypto and blockchain stocks fell in premarket trading after Bitcoin dropped 2%. This comes amid previous statements by Donald Trump, who positioned himself as a supporter of cryptocurrencies at the Bitcoin 2024 convention in Nashville in July.

Awaiting inflation data: investors focus on reports

Investors are closely watching the upcoming publication of the US Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is scheduled for Wednesday. The report is expected to provide further clues about the possible course of monetary policy, although the Federal Reserve has already emphasized that employment is taking precedence over inflation.

Inflation forecasts remain stable

According to the data from an analyst survey, the core consumer price index is expected to increase 0.2% in August from the previous month, in line with previous readings. This stability in the outlook leaves the question of the future of interest rates open, especially given that the latest employment report released on Friday did not provide a clear direction for the Fed's actions.

Fed rates in question: What to expect next week?

While most economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates next week, the size of the cut is still up for debate. After the mixed jobs report, it's clear the central bank needs more evidence of a slowdown or recession, particularly in the labor market.

"For the Fed to take more decisive action, we need more evidence of a slowdown in the economy, particularly in employment. I don't think the latest payrolls report provided that evidence," said ING's Carnell.

Market Price in Rate Cut Probability

Investors are currently pricing a 65% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points, with a 35% chance of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut when the central bank makes its decision on September 18, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Oil prices recover amid hurricane concerns

In commodity markets, oil prices began to recover from a significant drop in the previous session. Amid a decrease in US crude inventories and the threat of Hurricane Francine, which could disrupt production in the country, quotes rose by 2%. These factors partially offset concerns about a decrease in global demand.

Oil futures rise: Brent and WTI gain momentum

Brent crude rose by 2% to reach $70.64 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose by 2.25% to reach $67.21 per barrel. These figures reflect a mixed reaction of markets to the current uncertainty around production and demand.

Cryptocurrency stocks under pressure: Growing chances of Harris alarm the market

Shares of US companies related to cryptocurrencies are falling in premarket trading on Wednesday. This comes after Democratic nominee Kamala Harris successfully attacked her opponent Donald Trump in a heated debate, putting him on the defensive.

Trump as a cryptocurrency supporter: the industry is waiting

Trump, who has previously positioned himself as a Bitcoin supporter, has promised to support the cryptocurrency sector. His possible return to the White House could mean favorable changes for the industry, which has been critical of the current administration for excessive regulatory measures. However, after the debate, the crypto market is showing warning signs: Bitcoin, the world's largest digital currency, fell 1.6% on Wednesday, while Ethereum lost 2%.

Analysts assess the impact of the debate on the crypto market

"Despite the fact that the debate was not directly about cryptocurrencies, market sentiment is changing in favor of Kamala Harris," comments Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN.

"This is a bit of a chilling outlook for Bitcoin, in contrast to the more optimistic forecasts Trump made at the Bitcoin 2024 conference," Fournier adds, pointing to a shift in sentiment that could impact the future of cryptocurrencies.

Harris's odds are rising: Markets are taking bets

Kamala Harris's odds of winning the election have increased from 53% to 56% after the presidential debate, while Donald Trump's chances of winning have fallen from 52% to 48%, according to online betting site PredictIt.

Trump and the Crypto Industry: Promises and Hopes

Back in July, Donald Trump was actively seeking support from the crypto industry, speaking at a conference with promises of more favorable regulations. During his speech, he urged: "Never sell your Bitcoin," hoping to attract votes and donations from the crypto community.

Markets Watch Bitcoin: A Preference Indicator

Ahead of the debate, many analysts and traders looked to Bitcoin as an indicator that could tell which candidate is leading the race. The cryptocurrency market, known for its high volatility, is often seen as a risky asset. It attracts the attention of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which accuses market participants of violating securities laws.

Cryptocurrencies Are Growing in Popularity Despite Risks

Despite the risks and regulatory pressure, interest in cryptocurrencies continues to grow thanks to support from Wall Street and large corporations such as Elon Musk's Tesla, as well as the growing popularity of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds.

Crypto Stocks Fall: React to Debate

Crypto stocks were under pressure ahead of the opening bell. Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and Hut 8 lost between 2.5% and 3.4%. Software developer and major Bitcoin buyer MicroStrategy fell 4%, while cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global fell 2.5% and blockchain farm operator Bitfarms fell 3%.

These crypto market swings highlight the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election and its possible impact on future regulation of the industry.

US Inflation Takes a Backseat as Political Battles Rumble

Amid the heated US presidential debate, upcoming inflation data has taken a backseat for now, but the lull could be temporary.

Last Stand Before Big Fed Decision

Wednesday's August consumer price report will be the last major economic data before the Federal Reserve's expected decision on September 18. With markets pricing in a roughly 35% chance of a sharp 50 basis point rate cut, and a 25 basis point cut already fully priced in, the upcoming data could significantly change traders' bets and positioning.

Economists See Inflation Stable

Economists surveyed expect both headline and core CPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month, with annual inflation falling to 2.6% in August from 2.9% in July. That outlook could impact the Fed's policy decisions.

Markets react to shifting balance of power

U.S. Treasury yields fell, while the dollar and Bitcoin, as well as U.S. stock futures, also fell. The market reaction is interpreted as a sign that the debate has given Harris a slight advantage ahead of the November 5 presidential election.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 3.605%, the lowest since June 2023, while the dollar was at 141.68 yen.

Trump's budget forecasts and plans

Amid the election race, budget analysts expect Trump's policies to be aimed at creating new federal debt, which may become one of the key points of his agenda.

Treasury interest: markets await auction

The auction of 10-year Treasury notes scheduled for Wednesday will be an indicator of investor sentiment and their interest in U.S. government securities. The auction will help gauge how markets are assessing the current state of the economy and the outlook for interest rates.

Bank Stocks Under Pressure: Regulators Step Up Scrutiny

Bank stocks remain in focus after a sharp decline. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve chairman unveiled a plan to increase capital requirements for the largest banks by 9%. The proposal was less stringent than the initial version, which met with considerable resistance from Wall Street, but still disappointed bank investors and some critics.

Mixed Signals from Wall Street: Earnings at Risk

Adding pressure on the banking sector were comments from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan Chase cut its interest income forecasts, while Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said trading income could fall 10% in the current quarter.

UniCredit Targets Commerzbank: New Deal on the Horizon?

Meanwhile, in Europe, attention was drawn to Italian bank UniCredit, which announced Wednesday that it would acquire a 9% stake in Germany's Commerzbank. UniCredit is also seeking approval to potentially increase its stake in the bank, part of CEO Andrea Orcel's strategy to acquire a major German lender. The move is fueling speculation that UniCredit is preparing to make a move in the German market.