FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on January 12, 2024

EUR/USD

US consumer prices increased more than expected in December: the so-called core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.9% from a year ago, compared with an estimated 3.8%, with November's value at 4.0% from a year earlier, while the CPI rose from 3.1% to 3.4% on a yearly basis in December. The monthly growth was 0.3%. The reaction to these figures was mainly seen in the stock market, where the S&P 500 initially lost 0.94%. However, the market eventually turned around, and the index closed the day down by only -0.07%, while the Dow Jones gained 0.04%. Investors did not change their opinion regarding the first rate cut in March; in fact, they increased market expectations from 67% to 70%, mostly factoring in geopolitical risks. The yield on 5-year US government bonds decreased from 3.97% to 3.87%. The euro closed the day at the same level as the previous day's closing price.

As a result, the price settled above the balance indicator line on the daily timeframe. The Marlin oscillator has not yet crossed into the positive territory but is close to doing so. The price is facing two target levels: 1.1033 and 1.1076 (the peak on April 14th). Beyond that, the price will have to fight for the 1.1185 level.

On the 4-hour chart, the technical picture has not changed. Only the MACD indicator line has slightly fallen and is now closer to the price at 1.1008. Overcoming this resistance will allow the price to aim for the 1.1033 level. The Marlin oscillator is ready to support the price at any moment since it is in the uptrend territory.