FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on January 4, 2024

EUR/USD

Yesterday's US ISM business activity data for December showed improvement, but investors continued to move away from risk, with the S&P 500 declining by 0.80%, and the euro falling by 17 pips. The manufacturing PMI rose from 46.7 to 47.4, and the employment index in the manufacturing sector increased from 45.8 to 48.1. The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting confirmed the December theses of Williams, Bostic, and Mester regarding the market's reassessment of the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary easing. The US will release employment reports both today and tomorrow – we expect market volatility to rise.

On the daily chart, the price has tested the target support level of 1.0905, and the Marlin oscillator's signal line is indicating a potential bullish reversal. Perhaps, good data on new jobs in the private sector will restore risk appetite, and the euro will rise towards the level of 1.1033. If the price consolidates below 1.0905, it increases the risk of a decline towards 1.0825 and further to 1.0790, the MACD indicator line.

On the 4-hour chart, Marlin is preparing for an upward reversal (the green area). Currently, nothing is disrupting the technical reversal. We are waiting for the ADP employment data in the private sector. The forecast is optimistic – 115,000 jobs added compared to 103,000 in November.