FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on December 20, 2023

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the Bank did not discuss rate cuts at all, which led to a relatively modest increase in the single currency. This contrasts with Andrea Enria's comments from yesterday, who currently serves as Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board. He clarified Lagarde's statements, stating that the question of lowering interest rates should only be considered if inflation slows down to 2.0%. Inflation is decreasing, but rather slowly, and it is still above this threshold. His comments imply that the ECB may start lowering interest rates after the Federal Reserve does. It appears that the ECB is not in a hurry to cut rates, creating the prospect of a shift in interest rate differentials in favor of Europe. This is, when the ECB's interest rates are higher that of the Fed. And this is the reason why the euro is rising.

Today, there are no significant reports lined up, and the market will likely attempt to consolidate around the current levels.

The EUR/USD pair completed the corrective phase around the level of 1.0900, where the volume of short positions decreased. This may point to the recovery process in the euro, based on which the quote almost returned to the resistance level of 1.1000.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70. This technical signal indicates an increase in the volume of long positions.

On the same timeframe, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, corresponding to the uptrend.

Outlook

In order to rise further, the price must settle above the level of 1.1000. This will raise the volume of long positions, which can prolong the uptrend. The bearish scenario will come into play in case the price rebounds from the resistance level of 1.1000. However, take note that despite the recent correction and the possibility of another rebound, the uptrend remains intact. Thus, corrections and pullbacks align with its components.

Complex indicator analysis indicates an uptrend in the short-, medium- and long-term timeframes.