FX.co ★ Analysis and trading tips for USD/JPY on December 13

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading USD/JPY

Further growth became limited because the test of 145.69 coincided with the sharp upward move of the MACD line. Confusing US inflation data also contributed to the halt, especially since the figure increased in monthly terms, while on a yearly basis it decreased, which will undoubtedly influence today's decision of the Fed on interest rates.

The second test of 145.69 occurred when the MACD line went within the overbought area, provoking a sell signal. As a result, the pair fell in price by around 20 pips.

Although the reports on Japan's manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity caused a slight increase in yen, it did not affect the market's balance of power. Most likely, the direction of USD/JPY will depend on the decisions made by the Federal Reserve. Maintaining a strict policy will lead to further dollar growth and a decline in yen.

For long positions:

Buy when the price hits 146.08 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 146.48. Growth will occur only if the Fed maintains a strict position on monetary policy.

When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Also consider buying USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 145.71, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 146.08 and 146.48.

For short positions:

Sell when the price reaches 145.71 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 145.05. Pressure will increase if the Fed changes its opinion towards lowering interest rates next year.

When selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Also consider selling USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 146.08, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 145.71 and 145.05.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy USD/JPY

Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell USD/JPY

Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.