FX.co ★ AUD/USD dynamics scenarios on November 21, 2023

During today's Asian trading session, the Australian dollar strengthened sharply, and the AUD/USD pair updated a 15-week high, reaching 0.6586. However, investor caution ahead of the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the minutes of the recent Fed meeting pushed the AUD/USD pair slightly lower, dropping towards the key resistance level of 0.6570 (200 EMA on the daily chart).

If the texts of the aforementioned minutes of the Fed meeting are perceived by market participants as hawkish, a rebound and a sharp strengthening of the U.S. dollar can be expected, at least in the short term.

As for the AUD/USD pair, this will be reflected in a rebound from the key resistance level of 0.6570 and a decline. A break of today's low of 0.6555 and the short-term support level of 0.6544 200 EMA on the 15-minute chart) could signal a resumption of short positions with a prospect of decline towards the important medium-term support level of 0.6520 (144 EMA on the daily chart).

For the resumption of the downward trend in AUD/USD, one text of the Fed meeting minutes is likely to be insufficient, given the post-meeting U.S. inflation data, which indicated a rather sharp slowdown.

In an alternative scenario, the price will break through key resistance levels of 0.6570, 0.6600 (50 EMA on the weekly chart), and continue the upward correction, heading towards the important long-term resistance level of 0.6950 (200 EMA on the weekly chart). Its breakout will lead AUD/USD into the long-term bull market zone. Above the resistance level of 0.6600, long positions will be preferable in this case.

Support levels: 0.6555, 0.6544, 0.6520, 0.6500, 0.6480, 0.6454, 0.6430, 0.6420, 0.6400, 0.6360, 0.6335, 0.6300, 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170

Resistance levels: 0.6570, 0.6600, 0.6700, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6900, 0.6955, 0.7000, 0.7040