FX.co ★ Analysis and trading tips for USD/JPY on November 21

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading USD/JPY

The test of 148.90, coinciding with the downward movement of the MACD line from zero, prompted a sell signal that resulted in a price decrease of over 70 pips. Clearly, the intervention of the Bank of Japan and weak data from the US continue to affect the market, and considering the recent overbought condition of the pair, further decline in USD/JPY can be expected. Poor figures on the volume of existing home sales in the US and the dovish minutes of the Fed will likely lead to a new sell-off, unless traders interpret the statements of Fed representatives differently. In that case, dollar will have a chance for an upward correction later in the day.

For long positions:

Buy when the price hits 147.95 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 149.18. Growth will continue if the Fed remains hawkish in its policy. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it.

Also consider buying USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 147.29, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 147.95 and 149.18.

For short positions:

Sell when the price reaches 147.29 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 146.24. Pressure will persist in the event of weak US statistics and dovish Fed minutes. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it.

Also consider selling USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 147.95, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 147.29 and 146.24.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy USD/JPY

Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell USD/JPY

Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.