FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on November 16, 2023

EUR/USD:

Yesterday, the euro experienced a slight correction and took a breather after rallying on Tuesday. The price did not drop below the support level of 1.0834, and this morning it is trying to rise above the price channel line (1.0850). If it consolidates above it, the next target will be 1.0937/46 with an intermediate level of 1.0905.

One notable aspect of the substantial rally on Tuesday is that it occurred on average volumes. This implies that the stop-losses of major sellers were not closed; they are even higher. Two possible scenarios could unfold: a deep correction might occur either from the accumulation of these stop-losses or after their closure, leading to another powerful upward movement. In any case, we expect the price to reach the target level of 1.1096.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned downward from the upper band of its own ascending channel. Here, too, there could be two scenarios: the line is working on the lower band of the channel, which can affect the price in expanding the consolidation, potentially down to the Fibonacci retracement lower ray (1.0777), or the line from the current levels turns upwards with a retest of the upper band of the channel, or it breaks above into the overbought territory (likely testing 1.0937/46).

On the 4-hour chart, it appears as if the upward movement will persist since there were only candle shadows in the support range. The Marlin oscillator has already fallen low enough, releasing tension; it is ready to rise further. We will find out whether the price consolidates above resistance or below support.