FX.co ★ Analysis and trading tips for USD/JPY on October 20

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading USD/JPY

The test of 149.85, coinciding with the upward movement of the MACD line from zero, prompted a signal to buy. However, no strong price increase occurred as traders did not want to enter the market around 150, where the Bank of Japan could intervene at any moment.

Japan's CPI data indicated a slowdown to 3.0%, confirming the little reason to tighten monetary policy. This led to another sell-off of yen and a rise in dollar. Further direction will depend on the speeches of FOMC members Patrick Harker and Loretta Mester this afternoon.

For long positions:

Buy when the price hits 150.05 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 150.42. Growth will occur in continuation of the bull market, supported by inflation data in Japan. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it.

Also consider buying USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 149.74, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 150.05 and 150.42.

For short positions:

Sell when the price reaches 149.74 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 149.33. Pressure will return in the event of soft statements from Fed representatives, similar to Chairman Jerome Powell's speech yesterday. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it.

Also consider selling USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 150.05, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 149.74 and 149.33.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy USD/JPY

Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell USD/JPY

Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.