FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on October 16, 2023

The fact that the eurozone industrial production contracted more than expected in annual terms, from -2.2% to -5.1%, exerted significant downward pressure on the euro. This was exacerbated by the fact that the consensus estimate was a fall to -3.2%. However, this only reinforced the dollar's overbought condition, so by the end of trading, the pair rebounded. This was partly due to the geopolitical situation, which pushed oil and gold prices higher. As a result, the dollar continued to lose ground at the opening of the Asian session. It seems that we will continue to see this trend. After all, there are no other factors at play due to the empty economic calendar.

During an intense downward move, the EUR/USD pair reached the support level of 1.0500, and the volume of short positions fell. As a result, the downward cycle slowed, and a retracement followed.

On the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the lower area of 30/50, corresponding to the downward cycle

On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards.

Outlook

From a technical standpoint, a rebound from the 1.0500 level may push the pair above the 1.0550 mark. The bearish scenario will come into play if the price stays below the 1.0500 level.

Complex indicator analysis indicates a corrective move in the short-term period. Meanwhile, in the intraday period, the indicators are reflecting a downward cycle.