FX.co ★ USD/CAD dynamics scenarios on September 19, 2023

If there are any signals from the Fed tomorrow that its interest rate may have reached its peak, the decline in the USD/CAD pair may accelerate. In this case, the CAD may benefit from the relatively more "hawkish" stance of the Bank of Canada compared to the Fed.

Further decline and a break below key support levels 1.3405 (200 EMA on the daily chart) and 1.3390 (50 EMA on the weekly chart) will take USD/CAD into the medium-term bearish territory, with a break below support levels at 1.3185 (144 EMA on the weekly chart) and 1.3115 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) bringing it into the long-term bearish zone, making short positions favorable again.

The first signal for new short positions on USD/CAD would be a break below the important medium-term support level of 1.3430 (144 EMA on the daily chart).

In the main scenario, USD/CAD will resume its upward trend. The first signal for the resumption of long positions would be a rise above the important resistance level of 1.3450 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the growth wave from 0.9700 to 1.4600, reached in June 2016), and confirmation would come with a rise above the important medium-term resistance level of 1.3475 (50 EMA on the daily chart).

Overall, despite the decline that began after the Bank of Canada meeting earlier this month, the USD/CAD pair maintains a positive dynamic, trading in the zone of both the global (above the key support level of 1.2690) and medium-term (above the key support levels of 1.3390 and 1.3405) bullish markets.

Therefore, it may be logical to expect a rebound and a resumption of growth in the zone of support levels 1.3405, 1.3390, and possibly already near the support level of 1.3430.

The next two days may help the pair determine the direction of further movement.

Support levels: 1.3430, 1.3405, 1.3390, 1.3320, 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3180, 1.3115

Resistance levels: 1.3450, 1.3475, 1.3500, 1.3509, 1.3541, 1.3600, 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3810, 1.3860, 1.3900, 1.3970, 1.4000