FX.co ★ Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for February 2, 2024

Bitcoin Bulls Test Channel's Strength Amidst Political Winds

Political Landscape's Influence on Bitcoin's Fortunes

As El Salvador gears up for its presidential election on February 4, 2024, the cryptocurrency market is closely watching. Incumbent President Nayib Bukele, a staunch pro-Bitcoin advocate, is seeking re-election. His policies have transformed El Salvador into a Bitcoin-friendly nation, introducing Bitcoin as legal tender and establishing a network of Bitcoin ATMs. Bukele's re-election could further cement these policies, potentially impacting Bitcoin's global standing.

BTC/USD Technical Market Outlook: Charting Bitcoin's Path

Bitcoin's recent price action saw a 50% retracement from its last downward wave, touching $43,806 before forming a Shooting Star pattern and Pin Bars on the H4 chart. Although it momentarily fell out of its ascending channel, bulls are attempting a resurgence, targeting $43,806 and $44,326. The immediate support lies at $41,796.

Intraday Indicator Analysis:

• 11 out of 23 technical indicators signal Buy, 7 indicate Sell, and 5 are Neutral.
• 12 of 18 moving averages suggest Buy, while 6 point to Sell.

Market Sentiment:

Current sentiment is predominantly bullish (70% bulls vs. 30% bears), echoing last week's (74% bulls vs. 26% bears) and the past three days' trends (75% bulls vs. 25% bears).

Weekly Pivot Points: Identifying Critical Levels

• Resistance Zones: WR3 - $43,322, WR2 - $42,704, WR1 - $42,336.
• Pivot Point: $42,085.
• Support Zones: WS1 - $41,718, WS2 - $41,465, WS3 - $40,898.

Bullish Scenario: Prospects of an Upward Trajectory

Should Bitcoin maintain its position above the ascending channel's support and surpass the DEMA at approximately $42,769, it might set its sights on $43,500 and even $44,500, contingent on sustained buying pressure and favorable market sentiment.

Bearish Scenario: The Downside Potential

A failure to hold above the 100 EMA at $42,205 could mark a bearish shift. Breaking below the channel support and the EMA might lead Bitcoin to test lower supports at $40,000 and $39,500. This downturn could be triggered by negative market news or a general risk-off sentiment.

Conclusion:

For investors and traders, the key is to monitor Bitcoin's response to the channel's support and global political developments, particularly in El Salvador. The market's reaction to these events will be crucial in determining Bitcoin's short-term movements.

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Important Notice

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