FX.co ★ Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for January 22, 2024

A Quiet Start To The Week on EUR/USD

Key Takeaways:

• Bearish targets: 1.0825 and 1.0723.
• Resistance levels: 1.0877 and 1.0898.
• Indicators of a bullish shift: Sustained breakout above resistance levels.

Morning Brief:

Today's financial landscape presents a mixed bag of global economic indicators. The Central Bank of China maintains stability in its one-year (3.45%) and five-year (4.25%) rates, amidst a tumultuous session for the Hang Seng Index, marking its poorest January performance since 2016. Significant losses were noted in developers' shares, including China Resources Land, and in technology giants like Alibaba and Tencent.

Contrastingly, the Asian markets, excluding China, exhibited a modestly optimistic sentiment. Japan's Nikkei and Topix indices surged, achieving unprecedented highs, while South Korea's KOSPI remained unchanged. In the pre-open trading phase, European and US stock futures are experiencing minor declines.

In commodities, Brent crude oil struggles to breach the USD 80 threshold, currently experiencing a 1% loss. This follows the US and UK's strategic military interventions against Houthi targets. The natural gas market continues its downward trajectory, shedding over 4% today.

The US dollar shows a slight weakening, with EURUSD gaining 0.12% and the dollar index slightly decreasing by 0.7%. Precious metals display a bearish sentiment, with gold and silver experiencing losses of 0.3% and 1.8%, respectively. Bitcoin, representing the broader cryptocurrency market, also faces a downturn, trading at $41,000 with a 1.3% loss.

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair experienced a pivotal moment, breaking below the short-term trend line at 1.0928 and registering a new low at 1.0845, before rebounding from the oversold market conditions. Bears eye the 1.0825 level as their next target, potentially testing the December 2023 lows at 1.0723 if this support is breached. Conversely, bulls must surpass the 1.0877 and 1.0898 (50 DEMA) resistance levels to shift the short-term market outlook.

The bearish targets in a strong sell-off scenario are identified at the 61% Fibonacci extension (1.0837) and the 100% extension (1.0735). However, a Hammer candlestick pattern emergence indicates potential buyer interest, warranting attention to price movements above the moving averages for trend confirmation.

EUR/USD H1 Intraday Indicator Analysis

The technical indicators present a predominantly bullish sentiment. Out of 22 indicators, 12 signal a Buy, 3 a Sell, and 7 remain Neutral. Moving averages also lean towards a bullish trend, with 15 indicating Buy and 3 indicating Sell.

Sentiment Scoreboard: Market Perception

The general market sentiment leans towards bullish (59% vs. 41% bears). This trend is consistent over the past week and the last three days, indicating a stable bullish sentiment.

Weekly Pivot Points: Key Levels to Watch

Pivot Points offer crucial insights into potential market movements. The current levels are as follows:

• WR3: 1.09393
• WR2: 1.09207
• WR1: 1.09136
• Weekly Pivot: 1.09021
• WS1: 1.08950
• WS2: 1.08835
• WS3: 1.08649

Trading Insights: Evaluating Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

Bullish Scenario: A confirmation of the Hammer pattern with upward price movement is key. Traders should watch for a break above the resistance trend line and the moving averages.

Bearish Scenario: A break below the Hammer's low could indicate rejection of the bullish reversal, continuing the downward trend. Traders should be cautious of reversal signals and consider securing profits near the oversold RSI region.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, EUR/USD traders should closely monitor the resistance and support levels for signs of market shifts. Bullish trends require a clear breakout above key resistance levels, while bearish trends call for cautious trading, especially near potential reversal zones. Stay informed and vigilant to capitalize on market movements effectively.

Useful Links

• More Artcles
• InstaForex Course for Beginners
• Open Trading Account

Important Notice

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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