FX.co ★ Michael van de Poppe: Bitcoin will drop to $12,000

Indeed, in the 4-hour timeframe, it is even more evident how exactly Bitcoin has moved in recent months. As mentioned, it spent several weeks in one sideways channel and transitioned to another. Both channels are visible in the illustration below. Yesterday, the price left the second sideways channel, so the chances of Bitcoin continuing to fall have sharply increased. The only thing that makes us doubt this is the Senkou Span B line on the 24-hour timeframe. However, as we have already said, in any case, we need confirming signals for purchase for the rebound from Senkou Span B to be considered. This means a return to the second sideways channel in the current circumstances.

While most "crypto experts" continue to predict mind-boggling values for Bitcoin, some look at what's happening more soberly. Or they are not Bitcoin investors and therefore are not interested in constantly calling for buying it at all costs. Michael van de Poppe, a cryptocurrency analyst, believes that Bitcoin has consolidated for too long and has lost all chances of staying above $30,000. He thinks the crypto asset could drop to $12,000, and neither a "halving" nor a Bitcoin ETF launch will help. It should be noted that van de Poppe does not provide substantial arguments in favor of his point of view.

We note that Bitcoin's further decline could lead to a consolidation below the ascending trend line in the 24-hour timeframe. This, in turn, would break the year-long "bullish" trend, which could very well be part of the downward trend that started two years ago, i.e., be just a correction within its framework. Therefore, in the near future, the fate of BTC for the next 6-12 months will be seriously decided. If the price remains above the trend line, the "bullish" trend will persist, and we can expect new growth. If the trend line is breached, we will support Michael's forecast, as in this case, the downward trend may resume with a high probability.

On the 4-hour timeframe, the cryptocurrency has started a decline, which could drag on for several more weeks. The current correction is not yet over, but it is very sluggish. Short positions should not be large. The cryptocurrency has already left the second sideways channel, so we can expect a continuation of the decline. For now, it is limited to $28,250 and $27,250.