FX.co ★ Will Fed minutes of July policy meeting spring any surprise?

The July minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting will be published today. The minutes are sure to show that only few officials advocated for keeping interest rates unchanged until the end of the year. At the same time, most policymakers are likely to remain cautiously optimistic about a softer landing for the economy. So, another final quarter-point hike in interest rates is already in the cards.

Clearly, the officials who favored keeping rates unchanged after the July meeting are clearly in the minority. However, many FOMC members may be concerned about deteriorating lending conditions, which will influence their future decisions. Judging by the way the market reacted to the rate hike in July and the dovish tone of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the press conference after the meeting, the odds are that the Federal Reserve will soften its rhetoric in September this year. In the meantime, further Fed's policy moves are a rather complicated question. It is unlikely that today's minutes will allow traders to get an answer to this question. Hence, I do not expect a particular surge in volatility and directional market movement.

Recent public statements by other Fed officials since the July meeting suggest that the high degree of consensus may be starting to wane. The common viewpoint among Fed policymakers underpinned the aggressive tightening campaign over the past year and a half. Some Fed officials, for example, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, have indicated that the central bank may not need to keep raising interest rates. Others, including Fed Chief Michelle Bowman, take the opposite view.

According to futures contracts, investors are currently not expecting a rate hike this year, although the chances of a rate hike at the November 1 meeting are much higher than at the September 20 meeting. Many traders will likely be waiting for new guidance and signals from Powell at the Kansas City Fed's annual conference at Jackson Hole in Wyoming next week.

As for today's technical picture of EUR/USD, the euro remains under selling pressure. If the euro bulls want to return control, they need to push the price above 1.0920. This will allow a rebound back to 1.0950 and test 1.0980. Already from this level, it is possible to climb to 1.1020, but it will be quite problematic to do this without the support of large market players. If the trading instrument declines, I expect any serious actions from large buyers only in the area of 1.0880. If no one is there, it would be a good idea to wait until the low of 1.0840 is updated or open long positions from 1.0810.

As for the technical picture of GBP/USD, the instrument is still trading within the sideways channel. You can count on strengthening only after the bulls manage to take control of 1.2725. The return of this area will cement hopes for a recovery to the area of 1.2750 and 1.2770. Once these levels are reached, it will be possible to talk about a sharper upward push of the pound to the area of 1.2815. If GBP/USD falls, the bears will try to take control of 1.2690. If they cope well, a break of this range would hit the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD to a low of 1.2660. Then, the door will be open to lower levels at around 1.2620.