FX.co ★ Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 15

Dollar demand surged as soon as the US trading session started. However, a rollback took place shortly after, indicating that the movement could be a simple speculation, or a mistake on the part of a major institutional investor.

Since many market participants showed minimal activity, leading to a so-called thin market, a single bid from a major player can indeed move the market.

Today, data on the UK's unemployment rate will come out, but it will not affect market sentiment because forecasts say it will remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the US retail sales report could lead to a rebound in dollar, as the index may show a slowdown from 1.5% to 1.0%.

US Retail Sales

Despite a local surge in activity, EUR/USD fell into stagnation, as short positions decreased around the support level of 1.0900. In this situation, a rebound or a breakout could take place, depending on the behavior of speculators.

GBP/USD reached August's local low, where the volume of short positions decreased. This resulted in a rollback to 1.2700. For subsequent growth, the pair needs to rise above 1.2700 and stay there. Otherwise, a stagnation may begin.