FX.co ★ AUD/USD dynamics scenarios on August 14, 2023

AUD/USD exhibits a downward trend, delving deeper into the territory of the long-term bearish market situated below the key resistance levels of 0.6950 (144 EMA on the weekly chart), 0.7040 (200 EMA on the weekly chart, 50 EMA on the monthly chart, and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the drop from the 0.9500 level to the 0.5510 level).

Having broken the crucial support level of 0.6755 (200 EMA on the daily chart at that time) at the end of the previous month, AUD/USD continues to decline deep into the downward channel on the weekly chart, heading towards its lower boundary, which is near the marks 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170 (2022 lows and the lower boundary of the downward channel on the weekly chart).

Breaking through the local support level of 0.6455 (May lows and 23.6% Fibonacci level) will be a signal to increase short positions.

In an alternate scenario, the quickest signal for the resumption of long positions might be a break above the 0.6505 resistance level (200 EMA on the 15-minute chart), and the confirming one will be a break above the significant short-term resistance level of 0.6553 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) and the local "round" resistance level of 0.6600.

Medium-term growth targets are the key resistance levels of 0.6700 (144 EMA on the daily chart), 0.6730 (200 EMA on the daily chart), and 0.6740 (50 EMA on the weekly chart).

However, only breaking through the key resistance levels of 0.6950 (144 EMA on the weekly chart) 0.7000, and 0.7040 (200 EMA on the weekly chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci level) will place the AUD/USD in the territory of the long-term bullish market.

Thus, in the current situation, short positions remain preferable.

Support levels:0.6455, 0.6390, 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170

Resistance levels: 0.6505, 0.6553, 0.6600, 0.6655, 0.6700, 0.6730, 0.6740, 0.6800, 0.6840, 0.6900, 0.6950, 0.7000, 0.7040