FX.co ★ Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for January 11, 2024

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for January 11, 2024

Is Bitcoin Gearing Up for a Breakout?

Crypto Industry News:

Following Cboe BZX Exchange's revelation of approved securities listings from several asset managers, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might be inching closer to the full approval of a Bitcoin ETF listing.

Cboe Exchange disclosed in documents to the SEC on January 10 that it had accepted BTC spot ETF offerings from Franklin Templeton, ARK 21Shares, Invesco Galaxy, Fidelity, VanEck, and WisdomTree. With ARK 21Shares ETF's final clearance or rejection due by January 10, there's speculation that the SEC may approve multiple bids from asset managers at once.

To expedite the listing process, Cboe is seeking these securities to be registered under Rule 12d1-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended.

ETF expert Eric Balchunas stated that Cboe's disclosures were the "final step" before the SEC fully approves asset managers' S-1 forms. Some analysts forecast that the Bitcoin ETF might debut as soon as January 11 if approved by the regulator on January 10.

The SEC's official X account announced complete approval on January 9, igniting rumors of an impending decision on Bitcoin ETFs. However, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler promptly stated that the account had been compromised and was not used to make an announcement about this investment vehicle.

The market was left in suspense by the SEC's tweet: was the statement genuine and released early by a hacker, or completely fabricated to influence cryptocurrency prices? On January 9, Security Team X reported that the SEC's account was not using two-factor authentication. Several US politicians have since called for the commission to issue a report on the incident.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has reached a new yearly high at $47,977, with bullish pressure increasing and coming off extremely overbought market conditions. The next targets for bulls are seen at $48,200 and $50,000. The intraday technical support is at $44,740, with resistance at $47,722 and $47,977. The short-term trend on the H4 chart remains upward.

Key Technical Elements:

• Trendlines: The orange ascending trendline indicates a consistent uptrend, with Bitcoin making higher lows, a bullish signal. This trendline acts as dynamic support.
• Resistance Level: A critical resistance level at $48,200 is highlighted, representing a potential hurdle for bulls.
• Moving Averages: The inclusion of a 100-period EMA and a 50-period DEMA, both trending upwards, reinforces the bullish sentiment.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is around 65, suggesting room for upward movement before reaching the overbought territory.
• Candlestick Patterns: Recent candles show indecision, indicating a consolidation phase.
• Support Levels: Multiple horizontal support levels are identified, potential areas for buyer intervention.

Given these factors, the chart suggests cautious optimism for the near term, though a break below the ascending trendline could signal a trend reversal.

Intraday 1H Indicator Signals:

• Technical indicators show mixed signals with 10 suggesting Sell, 7 indicating Buy, and 5 Neutral.
• Moving averages are predominantly indicating Sell.

Sentiment Scoreboard: The general sentiment leans bullish (73% bulls vs. 27% bears), consistent with last week's and the past three days' sentiment.

Conclusion:

The overall analysis suggests a bullish trend for Bitcoin, with the next long-term technical target at $48,200. Key long-term support is at $32,829 and $31,790. Continuous monitoring of market dynamics and regulatory developments is essential for informed trading decisions.

Scenario for Bulls:

For bullish traders, the key focus should be on the continuation of the current uptrend indicated by the ascending trendline and supportive moving averages. If the BTC/USD pair maintains its momentum above the critical support levels, especially the recent intraday support at $44,740, it could indicate sustained buying interest.

• Breakout Watch: Bulls should watch for a potential breakout above the $48,200 resistance level. A successful breach of this level could open the path towards the psychological barrier of $50,000.
• Moving Average Support: As long as the price remains above the 50-period DEMA and 100-period EMA, the bullish trend is likely to continue. These averages provide dynamic support levels.
• RSI Consideration: With the RSI below the overbought threshold, there is room for upward price movement before the market becomes overextended.
• Volume Analysis: Increased trading volume during price ascensions would reaffirm the strength of the bullish market.

Bulls should remain vigilant for any signs of trend reversal and adjust their strategies accordingly, particularly if the price starts to decline below key moving averages or the ascending trendline.

Scenario for Bears:

Bearish traders, on the other hand, should look for signs of weakening in the bullish trend and potential reversal patterns. A key area of focus would be any break below the ascending trendline, which could signal a shift in market sentiment.

• Trendline Breach: A sustained move below the ascending trendline would be a significant bearish indicator, potentially leading to a test of lower support levels.
• Resistance Rejection: If the price fails to break above the $48,200 resistance and starts declining, it could indicate a lack of bullish strength and an opportunity for bears.
• RSI and Overbought Conditions: Should the RSI approach or exceed 70, the market may become overbought, increasing the likelihood of a price pullback or reversal.
• Moving Averages Crossover: A bearish crossover, where the 50-period DEMA moves below the 100-period EMA, would be a traditional bearish signal.

Bearish traders should also monitor global economic indicators and crypto market news, as negative developments can often trigger sell-offs in Bitcoin.

Useful Links

• More Artcles
• InstaForex Course for Beginners
• Open Trading Account

Important Notice

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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