FX.co ★ Probability of Bitcoin ETF launch increases to 65%

This downward movement was short-lived. Now, the BTC price is moving sideways. We mentioned in our recent articles that the key factor is not the level of $31,000, but rather the sideways channel on the 4-hour time frame. The cryptocurrency has also settled below it, indicating a new phase of decline rather than growth.

Since Bitcoin is trading flat, which has become quite common in recent years, it is time to consider its prospects. Many experts analyze BTC daily. Currently, the uptrend continues, and there is no reason to doubt this fact. The trendline points to the world's leading cryptocurrency's growth, although this growth has slowed down recently. The last price peak was only a few hundred dollars higher than the previous one, and the level of $31,000 has not been pierced after two attempts. The fundamental factors that could push Bitcoin higher have already been accounted for in the market for the next year.

The key focus for the cryptocurrency segment is the potential launch of a Bitcoin ETF. Several major crypto companies have submitted applications to the SEC and are now awaiting approval or rejection. One of Bloomberg's analysts, James Stewarts, stated that the likelihood of approval was 65%, whereas just half a month ago, he estimated it at 50%. The reasons for his increased forecast are not entirely clear, as no new information has been disclosed. We can assume that Stewarts has insider information and can make such statements.

The introduction of Bitcoin ETF is unlikely to lead to a sharp surge in Bitcoin's value. It is merely a new way of investing in cryptocurrency, intended to attract institutional investors who have more funds compared to retail investors. However, the willingness of institutional investors to deal with cryptocurrencies remains uncertain. As seen with MicroStrategy, if they have the desire, they can buy Bitcoin without these ETFs. In the long term, this instrument may positively impact Bitcoin's price, but in the short term, it is quite doubtful.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has rebounded once again from $31,000 and started a more significant downward trend. As mentioned earlier, the minimum target for this decline seems to be the ascending trendline, which currently sits at $26,500. One may sell BTC with this target, as the expected growth is currently delayed. If the trendline is breached, the possibility of an uptrend will likely be forgotten for at least a year. The intermediate target is the Senkou Span B line of the Ichimoku indicator. There are currently no signals for long positions.