FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on August 1, 2023

EUR/USD

Euro failed to approach the target range of 1.1068/92 yesterday, in part due to the large distance to cover and the technical resistance on lower timeframes. Key economic reports also came out rather weak, with Germany's retail sales for June showing a decrease of 0.8%. Meanwhile, the Chicago Business Activity Index for July increased from 41.5 to 42.8, collectively offsetting the eurozone's GDP growth for the 2nd quarter by 0.6% y/y (0.30% q/q).

The political factor also intervened, as China decided to reduce the export of unmanned aerial vehicles to the US, citing national security reasons. Furthermore, the forecasts for key economic indicators in the US came out optimistic.

Currently, the price approaches the target level of 1.0924, along which the MACD line also converges. There may be a breakout around the speculative buying range of July 6-7, or a correction from the entire decline since July 18.

On the four-hour timeframe, the balance indicator line capped yesterday's growth, pushing the price below 1.1012. The Marlin oscillator also fell under zero, showing a downward trend.