FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on July 28, 2023

EUR/USD

The euro is once again (after 20 days) disrupting the market. The European Central Bank raised its rate by 0.25% yesterday, and ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that this increase may be the last one (similar to the Federal Reserve) in the current tightening cycle. The euro lost 0.95% or 108 pips. Media reports that such a sharp decline was caused by the US Q2 GDP report, which showed that the economy expanded by 2.4% against the expected 1.8%. In addition, durable goods orders in June added 4.7% (forecast was 1.0%). Only the S&P 500 fell by 0.64%, reflecting expectations of a recession in the US and an expansion in the yield curve inversion in the government bond market.

The volume of yesterday's trades was the largest in the last 4 months, which means there is still potential for further decline. The 1.0924 level is an important support on the daily chart, which the MACD line is approaching. Consolidating below it will initiate a new downtrend in the medium-term. The Marlin oscillator has settled in the negative area. If the euro does not fall below 1.0924, it may rise again, even against unfavorable grounds. We are expecting a significant reversal of the euro that is in sync with the stock market decline (in September).

On the four-hour chart, the situation is bearish: the price is developing below both indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has settled in the downtrend territory. Consolidating below yesterday's low at 1.0966 opens up the target at 1.0924. Some kind of price convergence with the oscillator supports the euro's consolidation in the 1.0966-1.1012 range.