FX.co ★ AUD/USD dynamics scenarios on July 27, 2023

The following week may bring some changes in the dynamics of the AUD/USD pair, as the Reserve Bank of Australia will make its decision on the interest rate on Tuesday, which will be published at 04:30 (GMT).

For now, the AUD/USD has found support at the important level of 0.6730 (144 EMA, 50 EMA on the daily chart) and is developing a short-term upward trend, attempting to establish itself within the bullish medium-term market zone, above the key support level of 0.6755 (200 EMA on the daily chart).

In the event of a break above the local resistance level of 0.6840, which would be a confirming signal for building long positions, the AUD/USD could head towards the key resistance levels of 0.6975 (144 EMA on the weekly chart), 0.7040 (200 EMA on the weekly chart, 50 EMA on the monthly chart, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward wave from 0.9500 to 0.5510), which separate the long-term bearish market from the bullish one. The earliest signal for this scenario to play out would be a break above the local resistance level of 0.6800.

Meanwhile, below the resistance level of 0.7040, the AUD/USD remains in the long-term bearish market zone, making short positions preferable.

Therefore, in the event of a break below the support levels of 0.6755 and 0.6730, it is logical to assume further declines for the pair within the long-term bearish trend.

A signal for implementing the bearish scenario could be a break below the important support levels of 0.6780 (50 EMA on the weekly chart) and 0.6770 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), with targets near the lower boundary of the downward channel on the weekly chart, currently approaching the local lows from April 2020, at levels 0.6285 and 0.6200.

Support levels: 0.6780, 0.6770, 0.6755, 0.6730, 0.6700, 0.6600, 0.6565, 0.6500, 0.6455, 0.6390, 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170

Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6840, 0.6900, 0.6975, 0.7000, 0.7040, 0.7060