FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on July 25, 2023

EUR/USD:

There is one day left until the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision, and the euro, like other counter-dollar currencies, is struggling to enter a correction from its decline since July 18. Yesterday, after weak Eurozone PMI data and mixed PMI data from the US, the euro fell by 60 pips and reached the target range of 1.1068/92.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has not reached the border of the downtrend territory, so today the price still has a last chance for a correction. However, the economic calendar hardly provides any opportunity for a correction today - the German Ifo Business Climate index for July is forecasted to decrease from 83.6 to 83.0, and the CB Consumer Confidence Index in the US is expected to increase from 109.7 to 111.5.

The main risk of the Marlin oscillator being in positive territory one day before the Fed's decision is that in case of a rate hike, major players will buy the euro, just as they have been doing throughout the week since July 6. If that happens, the euro will likely move towards the target level of 1.1320.

On the four-hour chart, a weak convergence pattern has formed between the price and the oscillator, indicating that there might still be a reason for a correction, such as profit-taking (selling) against positive news for the dollar.