FX.co ★ Hot forecast for GBP/USD on July 21, 2023

Those in the US that were collecting unemployment benefits surged by 33,000, which is quite significant. Especially considering that only a 3,000 increase was expected. However, the pound continued to lose its positions. Firstly, the previous result was revised, reducing the number of claims by 8,000, which makes the current growth look less alarming. Secondly, initial applications for jobless claims fell by 9,000 instead of increasing by 5,000. As a result, it gives a somewhat different picture since it looks much better than the initial assessment. However, overall, the result cannot be considered overwhelmingly positive, especially for a noticeable strengthening of the dollar. Nevertheless, we should not forget about the recent broad weakness of the US dollar, which caused the greenback's oversold condition. This fact amplified the effect that led to the pound's fall.

Retail Sales (United Kingdom)

Today, the British currency may somewhat improve its performance due to the release of the UK retail sales report for June. The pace of their decline is expected to slow from -2.1% to -1.7%, and some forecasts even suggest -1.5%. This translates to a noticeable increase in consumer activity, which serves as an engine of economic growth. This should be enough for the pound to improve its position somewhat.