FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 20, 2023

The final report for euro area inflation in June fully matched the preliminary estimate, which the market had already taken into account a couple of weeks ago. So it's not surprising that the euro continued to move sideways.

Moreover, we will likely see the same trend throughout today. The only economic data for the day is the number of jobless claims in the United States. However, both the initial and continued claims are expected to see minimal changes, with initial claims seen to slightly rise by 5,000 and only 3,000 for continued claims. These changes are quite insignificant, albeit negative. Thus, even if the market reacts, it will hardly be noticeable.

The EUR/USD pair, due to its positive correlation with the British pound, has shifted towards weakening. However, this movement was of a local nature, as the quote returned above the 1.1200 level during the US session.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI hit the mid line 50, which means that the euro is no longer overbought in the intraday period. The volume of short positions may increase if the indicator stays below the level of 50.

On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are intersecting each other, which indicates a slowdown in the uptrend.

Outlook

In this situation, we should focus on the fact that the pair has become stagnant at the peak of the uptrend. The upper and lower bands are represented by the values of 1.1200 and 1.1250, around which the price fluctuates. Keeping the price outside one of these levels could indicate the subsequent price move. Until then, the pair will continue to move sideways.

In terms of complex indicator analysis, the price is moving sideways in the short-term and intraday periods. In the medium-term period, indicators are still pointing to an uptrend.