FX.co ★ Forecast for AUD/USD on July 17, 2023

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar gives the impression that it is returning to the target range of 0.6783/98. We believe in this impression because the Marlin oscillator has turned downwards, but what will happen next?

One scenario suggests a reversal towards the upper target level of 0.6940 according to the Fibonacci period by August 1st. On the daily chart, this is line number 8 with July 29 as the date, but considering the weekends, it will be on August 1, which is when the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is set to take place. Another scenario suggests the price falling to the target level of 0.6560, also by August 1st. In this case, the likely (96.7%) increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rate on July 26th will weigh on the Australian dollar. We are monitoring the price behavior within 0.6783/98 as the range.

On the 4-hour chart, the MACD line and the July 4 peak create the intermediate support level at 0.6708. Marlin has approached the zero line, increasing psychological tension.