FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on June 23, 2023

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro precisely tested the upper band of the descending price channel at 1.1012 and plunged, closing the day down by 30 pips. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning downward. The target is the 1.0910/30 range. Breaking below this range will open up the target along the lower embedded line of the price channel around the 1.0835 mark.

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell affirmed that more interest rate increases are likely ahead. This time the markets reacted, with yields on government bonds increasing (5-year yields rising from 3.95% to 4.04%), the market expectation for a 0.25% rate hike in July rising to 74.4%, and the US dollar index strengthening (0.30%).

On the 4-hour chart, the price divergence with the oscillator is ready, and Marlin has even managed to establish itself in downtrend territory. The 1.0910/30 range contains the MACD line, here it is possible to breakthrough on high volumes. We are waiting for further developments, and the bears are most likely to prevail.