FX.co ★ Fed says rate hikes will resume in August

As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged this June, but announced potential rate increases by the end of the year. The reason lies in inflation remaining far from the 2% target level, although forecasts did say that it will slow down to 3.2% this year.

The Fed's new target indicator for interest rates - 5.6% - implies two more rate hikes of 0.25% each this year. 9 out of 18 members said they see the final key rate at the level of 5.6%, significantly higher than the current 5.25%. GDP forecast for 2023 also increased from 0.4% to 1.0%.

It seems that the Fed will undoubtedly allow inflation to gradually decrease under the threat of further hikes. This statement resembles verbal intervention, which the Fed actively used in previous decades when it wanted to curb excessive optimism among investors, thereby preventing the formation of speculative financial bubbles.

Unsurprisingly, 2- and 10-year government bond yields fluctuated yesterday, and then continued to rise today. However, it remains unclear whether they will continue to rise to the levels seen in March of this year, as the market will take some time to digest the Fed's decision before it starts to take effect.

In terms of the ICE Dollar index, a decline occurred yesterday, but a slight growth could be seen today, reflecting the aforementioned doubts about the real continuation of rate hikes in the foreseeable future.

Forecasts for today:

EUR/USD

The pair shows little movements in anticipation of the outcome of the ECB's monetary policy meeting. Another rate hike and hawkish statements from Christine Lagarde will push the quote further to 1.0860 and 1.0915.

XAU/USD

Gold trades within a relatively narrow range of 1933.75-1983.75 for almost a month. Falling below the lower limit will bring the quote to 1912.00.