FX.co ★ Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 15. Simple tips for beginners

Analyzing Wednesday's trades:

EUR/USD on 30M chart

The EUR/USD pair continued its upward trajectory on Wednesday, although there were fewer reasons for it compared to Tuesday. However, the rally on Wednesday was even stronger. It is likely related to the results of the Federal Reserve meeting. It seems that the market has completely lost faith in the Fed and any hope of seeing at least one more rate hike, although this has been known for several months. Therefore, we still consider the euro's growth (and the pound) illogical. The EUR/USD pair at least has technical reasons for growth, as a correction is needed after a month-long decline, but as for the pound...

There is no point in analyzing Wednesday's macro data. The pair started rising early in the morning, ignoring the mediocre industrial production report in the EU, and the US producer price index did not change market sentiment. Now we have to wait for the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, although beginner traders should have already left the market.

EUR/USD on 5M chart

Two trading signals materialized on the 5-minute chart and the pair's movement was excellent. Initially, the pair consolidated below the 1.0792 level but failed to move in the right direction even by 15 pips. Therefore, the short position closed at a loss when the next buy signal was formed with a consolidation above the 1.0792 level. At that moment, beginners should have opened long positions. By the middle of the US session, the pair reached the nearest target area of 1.0857-1.0867. It was advisable to manually close the trade there as the sell signal had not yet formed. The profit amounted to about 60 pips, covering the loss from the first trade and allowing for a decent profit.

Trading tips on Thursday:

On the 30-minute chart, the pair continues to form an uptrend. In the medium term, we anticipate a resumption of the downtrend, but it may take some time to bring back this trend. The pair's movements can be very strong and random. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0607-1.0613, 1.0673, 1.0733, 1.0761, 1.0792, 1.0857-1.0867, 1.0918-1.0933, and 1.0980. When a move of 15 pips in the right direction occurs, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce the results of its meeting and hold a press conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde. These events alone can trigger significant movements. In the US, there will be several less important reports, such as retail sales, industrial production, and jobless claims.

Basic trading rules:

1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.

3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.

4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.

5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.

How to read charts:

Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.

Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.